Austin Real Estate Market: December 2025 Report
The Keenan Group publishes monthly Austin market analysis based on MLS data and our transaction experience. The Austin real estate market report for December 2025 covers single-family home sales, pricing trends, inventory levels, and buyer-seller dynamics in the City of Austin, sourced from the Austin Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. As of December 2025, the market showed 709 single-family sales, a $584,900 median price, and 3.18 months of inventory - conditions that favor prepared buyers with significant negotiating power.
"The 91.38% list-to-close ratio tells the real story. Buyers are effectively negotiating 8.6% off asking price across the board. Sellers who price correctly from day one are still getting strong offers, but aspirational pricing costs you months of market time and thousands in final sale price." --- Joe Keenan, Keenan Group, #1 ABOR Team 2024
December 2025 Key Metrics
Austin closed out 2025 with 709 single-family home sales, a 6.1% increase from December 2024. While sales volume ticked up, pricing showed the continued effects of a buyer-friendly environment.
- Median sales price: $584,900 (-4.1% year-over-year)
- Average sales price: $822,315 (-0.4% YoY)
- Price per square foot: $339, down slightly from previous months
- Months of supply: 3.18, down from 5.1 in July - a sharp seasonal contraction
The "on-paper" stats show tightening inventory, but the high frequency of price drops (54%) and a list-to-close ratio of 91.38% mean buyers still have significant negotiating power on homes that are lingering.
2025 Year-End Review: A Year of Stabilization
If 2024 was the year of correction, 2025 was the year of stabilization.
- Total sales: 8,312 single-family sales, a 2.2% increase year-over-year
- Median price: $613,000, a marginal 0.7% increase from 2024
- Total volume: $6.79 billion in single-family sales, up 3.2%
The takeaway: the "crash" never came, but neither did the "boom." Austin settled into a new normal where success is defined by precision - pricing right, prepping well, and negotiating hard.
Price Cuts and Compression
Price reductions remained a dominant theme through the end of the year. 54% of active listings carried a price drop in December.
- Median time to first price drop: 21 days
- Average price drop: 9%
- Listings that dropped their price went under contract after a median of 35 days
- The gap between seller expectation and buyer reality is about 9%. Sellers who bridge that gap upfront sell in weeks; those who don't can sit for months.
List-to-Close and Buyer Leverage
Homes closed at 91.38% of the list price in December. Buyers are effectively negotiating an average of 8.6% off the asking price across the board.
For buyers: Use this data to justify offers below list price, especially on homes with high days on market.
For sellers: If you are pricing with "wiggle room," you are likely pricing yourself out of consideration. The data suggests buyers are demanding significant concessions.
Days on Market by Month (2025)
| Month | Avg DOM | Sale-to-List % |
|---|---|---|
| January | 77 | 91.7% |
| February | 75 | 93.4% |
| March | 62 | 94.5% |
| April | 43 | 95.5% |
| May | 41 | 95.1% |
| June | 45 | 94.1% |
| July | 46 | 93.2% |
| August | 63 | 91.8% |
| September | 67 | 91.4% |
| October | 68 | 92.0% |
| November | 69 | 92.2% |
| December | 75 | 91.4% |
Spring (March-May) remains the seller's sweet spot. Fall and winter favor buyers with longer DOM and deeper discounts.
Compass Market Position
Compass holds 22.67% market share of $500K+ single-family sales in Austin - more than 4x the next largest brokerage. Compass-sold homes that were pre-marketed before going active on MLS saw 16% fewer days to contract and 78% fewer listings with price drops.
What's Coming Next: Spring 2026
If rates remain stable, expect a busy Q1. The seasonal tightening of inventory we saw in December will reverse as new sellers enter the market. Buyers should be prepared for more competition on the best homes. Sellers must launch as the "shiny penny" - perfect condition and sharp price - to stand out against the noise of 2025's leftover listings.
Related Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
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*Data from the Austin Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. Single Family, City of Austin. For a personalized market analysis of your neighborhood, contact the Keenan Group at (512) 415-7653.*
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