Austin Luxury Market Report Q1 2026

Quarterly Market Reports

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Austin's luxury market ($2M-$10M) for Q1 2026 by the numbers - composite median $/sqft, the Keenan Luxury Market Index, price-tier declines and the one band that appreciated, and what each reading means for sellers. Built on Keenan Group's proprietary sold data.

How did Austin's luxury market perform in Q1 2026?

In Q1 2026, Austin's luxury market ($2M-$10M closed single-family) read a $656 per square foot composite, with the Keenan Luxury Market Index at 105.0 (base 2021-Q1 = 100). The composite eased 3.5% year over year, and this was genuine softening, not a mix effect: the $2M-$3M band fell 4.3% to $594/sqft and the $5M-$10M band eased 0.9% to $999/sqft, while only the $3M-$5M band appreciated - up 2.4% to $784/sqft, its highest Q1 median in the series.

Composite $/sqft, $2M-$10M closed single-family: $656/sqft (KLMI 105.0, base 2021-Q1 = 100)
Composite year over year: -3.5% - genuine softening, concentrated in the $2M-$3M band
$2M-$3M tier: $594/sqft, -4.3% year over year - the main drag on the composite
$3M-$5M tier: $784/sqft, +2.4% year over year - its highest Q1 median in the series
$5M-$10M tier: $999/sqft, -0.9% year over year - close to flat in the thinnest band

Source: Keenan Group at Compass Real Estate, Austin TX - #1 Austin Board of Realtors Team (2024)

The headline reading

Composite median $/sqft and the Keenan Luxury Market Index for Q1 2026, base 2021-Q1 = 100.

Composite $/sqft

$656/sqft

$2M-$10M closed single-family

KLMI index

105

Base 2021-Q1 = 100

Composite YoY

-3.5%

Genuine softening, not a mix effect

The luxury ladder

Median $/sqft by price tier, Q1 2026. Year-over-year change shown per tier.

$2M-$3M

$594/sqft

-4.3% YoY

$3M-$5M

$784/sqft

+2.4% YoY

$5M-$10M

$999/sqft

-0.9% YoY

Median $/sqft across the luxury ladder

Price-tier medians for Q1 2026, $2M-$10M closed single-family.

$594/sqft

$2M-$3M-4.3% YoY

$784/sqft

$3M-$5M+2.4% YoY

$999/sqft

$5M-$10M-0.9% YoY

Median $/sqft by luxury price tier, Q1 2026
Price tier	Median $/sqft	Year-over-year change
$2M-$3M	$594/sqft	-4.3%
$3M-$5M	$784/sqft	+2.4%
$5M-$10M	$999/sqft	-0.9%

What this means for sellers

An honest read first: Q1 2026 was a softer quarter. The $656 per square foot composite eased 3.5% from a year earlier, and the tiers underneath confirm it - two of the three declined. The drag came from entry luxury: the $2M-$3M band, where most of the quarter's closings land, fell 4.3% to $594 per square foot.

The middle of the market was the bright spot. The $3M-$5M band rose 2.4% to $784 per square foot - its highest Q1 median in this series. The $5M-$10M band eased 0.9% to $999, close to flat; far fewer homes trade in that band, so treat small moves there as noise, not a trend. If you own in the $2M-$3M range, price sharper and expect negotiation. If you own in the $3M-$5M range, the data is on your side.

These are aggregate medians for $2M-$10M closed single-family sales across Travis, Williamson, and Hays counties, from the Keenan Luxury Market Index - our own measure, not a syndicated feed. It answers the question sellers actually ask: what is a home like mine worth per square foot, and where is demand concentrating.

Frequently asked questions

Did Austin luxury home prices fall in Q1 2026?

Yes, at the composite level. The $2M-$10M composite eased 3.5% year over year to $656 per square foot (KLMI 105.0), and this was genuine softening, not a mix effect: the $2M-$3M band fell 4.3% to $594/sqft and the $5M-$10M band eased 0.9% to $999/sqft. The exception was the $3M-$5M band, which rose 2.4% to $784/sqft - its highest Q1 median in the series.

Which Austin luxury price tier held up best in Q1 2026?

The $3M-$5M tier. It was the only band to appreciate in Q1 2026, rising 2.4% year over year to $784 per square foot - its highest Q1 median in this series. The $5M-$10M tier came close to holding at $999/sqft (-0.9%), and the $2M-$3M tier was the weak spot at $594/sqft (-4.3%).

What did the -3.5% composite decline mean for a $2M+ seller in Q1 2026?

It depended on the tier. The decline was concentrated in the $2M-$3M band (-4.3% to $594/sqft), so sellers there faced real price pressure and needed sharper pricing. A $3M-$5M seller sat in the one band that appreciated (+2.4% to $784/sqft). In the $5M-$10M band the median eased just 0.9% to $999/sqft, and fewer sales trade there, so a single large closing can swing the quarterly read. Price to your tier and your micro-market, not to the citywide composite.

Period: Q1 2026 (data window beginning 2026-01-01). Data as of July 14, 2026. Edition 2026-07-14-q1-v1. Composite down 3.5% year over year.

Source: Keenan Luxury Market Index (klmi_mls_v2_monthly_band_dataset) - polygon-based aggregation of ACTRIS/MLS closed single-family sales across Travis, Williamson, and Hays counties. Aggregate medians and counts only. This is a pinned Q1 2026 edition; the readings above do not change.

View the current Austin market report for the latest live Keenan Luxury Market Index.

Full methodology - what the index measures, what it deliberately excludes, and how to cite it - is documented on the Keenan Luxury Market Index methodology page.

Joe & Cara Keenan, Keenan Group at CompassJuly 14, 2026Updated July 15, 20262 min readmarket-reports

The readings above come from the Keenan Luxury Market Index, our own measure of Austin's upper-tier market. We build it from closed single-family sales between $2M and $10M across Travis, Williamson, and Hays counties, aggregated by price tier. It is proprietary Keenan Group data, not a syndicated feed, so it answers the question sellers actually ask: what is a home like mine worth per square foot, and where is demand concentrating.

We publish the down quarters the same way we publish the up ones. Q1 2026 read soft at the composite level, and the panels above say so plainly - a market index you can only cite when the news is good is not an index. The methodology, price bands, and rounding are identical in every edition.

This is a pinned Q1 2026 edition. The figures in the panels above are locked to the quarter and will not change as later data arrives. For the current market, see the live Keenan Luxury Market Index on our Market Report.

Keenan Group track record

These figures describe the Keenan Group, not the broader market above. Keenan Group is the #1 Austin Board of Realtors team for 2024, with more than $1B in career sales, over 1,000 homes sold across 25 years, and a 13-day median days on market that includes off-market sales. To put these numbers to work on your home, contact Joe and Cara Keenan at (512) 415-7653.

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