This is our March 2026 report, kept as a historical record. The luxury index figures below match the locked Q1 2026 Keenan Luxury Market Report. For current figures, see the Austin Housing Market July 2026 report or our live Austin market report.
Austin's luxury market read $656 per square foot in Q1 2026 on the Keenan Luxury Market Index (reading 105.0, base 2021-Q1=100), down 3.5% year over year. That softening was real, and it was concentrated in the $2M-$3M band, which fell 4.3% to $594. The bright spot was the $3M-$5M band, up 2.4% to $784 per square foot - its highest Q1 median in the series. The $5M-$10M band came in at $999 per square foot, down 0.9% - close to flat in the thinnest band, where a handful of closings can move the number.
The Austin housing market in March 2026 is sending mixed signals - and that's actually useful information if you know how to read it. The Keenan Group tracks these signals across every Austin neighborhood. Inventory is up, price growth has moderated, and buyers have more negotiating room than they've had in years. But certain neighborhoods and price points are still moving fast.
Here's what the data shows as of Q1 2026, and what it means for your next move.
"This is the healthiest market we've seen in five years. Buyers have choices, sellers are getting fair prices, and the panic in both directions has calmed down. We closed 15 transactions in Q1 2026, and every one felt balanced." --- Joe Keenan, Broker Associate, #1 ABOR Team 2024
March 2026 Market Snapshot
| Metric | March 2026 | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Median home price (Austin metro) | ~$550,000 | +2.1% |
| Luxury segment ($1.5M+) | $2.1M median | - |
| Luxury $/sqft (KLMI composite, $2M-$10M) | $656/sqft | -3.5% YoY |
| Average days on market | 45 | +5 days |
| Active inventory | 6,800+ listings | +18% |
| Months of supply | 3.2 months | Up from 2.4 |
| New listings (monthly) | 3,400+ | +12% |
| Closed sales | 2,100+ | +6% |
Source: Austin Board of Realtors, MLS data. Luxury segment tracked separately by our team across Travis, Williamson, and Hays counties. The luxury year-over-year figure is the Keenan Luxury Market Index composite (price per square foot, $2M-$10M universe), per the locked Q1 2026 report.
Price Trends: Moderate Growth, Not a Correction
Austin's median home price has climbed roughly 2% year-over-year to approximately $550,000 across the metro. That's a big departure from the 15-20% annual jumps of 2021-2022, but it's also not the decline some predicted.
What's driving prices:
- Population growth continues. Austin added roughly 50,000 new residents in 2025, per the Census Bureau.
- Tech employment has stabilized after the 2023-2024 layoff cycle. Tesla, Apple, Oracle, and Google all have significant Austin operations.
- Mortgage rates in the low-to-mid 6% range have become the new normal as of Q1 2026. Buyers have adjusted expectations.
The luxury segment tells a different story - a softer one. On the Keenan Luxury Market Index, luxury price per square foot finished Q1 2026 down 3.5% year over year. The $3M-$5M band was the only tier appreciating, up 2.4%, while the $2M-$3M band fell 4.3% and the $5M-$10M band was close to flat at -0.9%. Even so, limited supply in established luxury neighborhoods like Westlake Hills, Barton Creek, and Tarrytown keeps competition strong for the right homes at the top end.
Inventory: More Choices, But Not Everywhere
Active listings are up 18% compared to a year ago, giving buyers more options than they've had since 2020. But that increase isn't evenly distributed.
Where inventory is growing fastest:
- Suburban new construction in Cedar Park, Round Rock, and Georgetown - builders are delivering homes and offering incentives
- Condos and townhomes in Downtown Austin and East Austin
- Mid-range homes ($400K-$700K) in North Austin and Pflugerville
Where inventory remains tight:
- Established luxury neighborhoods in West Austin ($1.5M+)
- Waterfront properties on Lake Austin - always limited
- Homes in Eanes ISD under $1.5M (high demand, very few listings)
- New construction luxury in Spanish Oaks, Seven Oaks, and Mirador
What This Means for Buyers
If you've been waiting for the market to "crash" before buying, that scenario hasn't materialized - and most economists don't expect it to. But March 2026 is a genuinely good time to be a buyer in Austin for several reasons:
- More inventory means less pressure. You can tour homes, compare options, and negotiate without the 48-hour offer deadlines of 2021-2022.
- Sellers are contributing to closing costs again. We're seeing 1-2% seller concessions on roughly 40% of transactions. Combined with Austin's property tax rates and available homestead exemptions, the total cost of ownership is more manageable than headlines suggest.
- Rate buydowns are common. Builders and some sellers are offering 2-1 buydowns to reduce your effective rate in years one and two.
- Inspection contingencies are back. Almost every contract includes a standard option period now. No more waiving inspections to win a bidding war.
Focus on neighborhoods where you want to live long-term. Trying to time the bottom of any market is a losing strategy. The difference between buying today and buying six months from now is a rounding error over a 10-year hold.
